The Committee:
I’m not going to waste a lot of time on the committee. They did what they did.
I think the committee had three parameters for ranking teams:
- What’s a team’s overall record?
- When did they last lose?
- What are we eating?
I’m not kidding. They were totally winging it and guessing.
They shook it up a bit on their final ranking, leaving Ohio State above Georgia and Tech. They also finally put Miami above Notre Dame.
They could have easily dropped Ohio State a couple of notches, but they held firm; they believe Indiana and Ohio State are the clear two best teams in the country.
We shall see.
They also did some mental gymnastics to avoid punishing Alabama for its loss to Georgia in the conference championship game while punishing BYU.
It really didn’t matter for BYU, but, interestingly, they dropped a spot while Alabama didn’t.
Just a lot of circular logic through the entire selection process. That’s what you get with a bunch of administrators.
They never explained their reasoning for ranking Oregon, Ole Miss, and A&M in their respective spots. They just said they saw no reason to move them this week. I get that part, but I never saw an explanation for why in the first place.
I think it’s reasonable to put the Aggies at 5. I think it’s somewhat possible to put the Aggies at four, but with Tech winning a 12th game, it’s a tough sell.
You’re talking about one-loss teams, including Tech. I’m good with Tech at four since they won a 12th game, but the rankings of A&M, Ole Miss, and Oregon seem to be based solely on when they lost.
Definitely seems like metrics weren’t used.
The difference between being ranked 5, 6, and 7 seems pretty drastic, considering 5 and 6 get to play Tulane and James Madison.
In my mind, the 5 seed is the best in the entire bracket. I actually mean the seeds above 1 through 4.
You didn’t play a conference championship game and get to host James Madison at home. Then you get to play Tech in Miami.
That’s not to totally diss Tech, but I do think Tech is the team with a bye that has the most questions. They’re absolutely who I’d want to be paired with for the second round.
I’d rather face Tech than the winner of Bama-Oklahoma.
I don’t think Oregon wins it all, but I do think it’s a great position to be in to go on a run.
As for the 6 and 7 seeds, I actually like the 7 more. Especially since Notre Dame got pushed out.
The 6 has the easier path in the first round by far, but I don’t want to face Georgia in the second round.
Sure, Ohio State is an outstanding team, but I don’t think we match up well with Georgia. I’d rather take my chances with Ohio State than Georgia in the second round.
I’d trade taking on Miami at home in the first round and then heading to the Cotton to take on Ohio State rather than face Georgia in the Sugar Bowl after a cake game at home in the first round.
That’s our initial draw, and it’s doable.
Sure, you can argue the committee is a group of morons. And you’d be right.
However, there’s no point in arguing about the committee anymore.
The Aggies are hosting a game at Kyle Field, so it’s time to focus on that.
Miami:
I did not want to face Notre Dame. I know we beat them on the road earlier this season, but I did not want to play them again.
They’re a bad match-up for the Aggies. That’s not to say the Aggies couldn’t beat Notre Dame. The Aggies absolutely could beat Notre Dame at Kyle.
I don’t like their running game against us, and I believe CJ Carr is a better quarterback than when we played them. They were going to be a problem for many teams.
Don’t have to worry about that now. I hate that they screwed the Pop-Tarts in the Pop-Tarts Bowl because they got their feelings hurt. They were set to face BYU. Those are the two teams that got screwed by G5 teams, which would have been a fantastic game to watch.
Bunch of babies.
Back to Miami.
I think Miami is a better match-up for us.
Vegas agrees with me, as we would have been a Pick ‘Em against Notre Dame. We’re a 3 to 4.5 favorite against Miami, depending on where you like to wager.
That’s not a massive difference, but I’ll take whatever gain we can get.
Miami is a damn good football team, so that it won’t be easy.
For me, there are two things I like about the Miami matchup:
- Carson Beck
- Mario Cristobal
Carson Beck is a talented quarterback, but he’s not mobile at all. Mario Cristobal is a decent enough coach, but he absolutely vapor locks at times.
I hope that when it’s all said and done, Elko can confuse and frustrate Carson Beck much like he’s done with other stationary quarterbacks this season.
What scares me the most about Miami is its defensive front. They have some dudes along the defensive line and linebacker.
The best of the bunch is Rueben Bain, Jr. The dude is a load. He’s a potential number one overall pick in the NFL draft. He’s that good.
They’ve got a couple of other defensive linemen who are going to play on Sundays, along with a linebacker.
Their front on defense is no doubt the best part of their team. They’re going to be tough to handle. They’ll be every bit as good as the Texas defensive front was against us.
That doesn’t mean we can’t beat Miami, since our offense struggled so much against Texas’ defense. It just means we need to take a different approach. I’ll address that in a bit.
From an offensive standpoint, Miami has a pretty good offense. They’ve got a good running game along with a good passing game, and Carson Beck can be effective.
They’re not super explosive, but they’ll break off a few big plays here and there.
I think Carson Beck can be confused. If Elko can get back to his blitzing ways, I think we can stall out the Miami offense enough.
It won’t be easy, but it can be done.
We’re not shutting this offense down, though.
So How do the Aggies Advance?
First off, Mike Elko needs to realize he’s playing with house money. The Aggies aren’t even supposed to be here based on pre-season predictions.
As we’ve seen against the best two teams on our schedule in Notre Dame and Texas, there are still holes in this defense. A couple of other teams kind of exposed it as well.
Elko might not want to admit it, but he needs to. Our defense has holes. It doesn’t mean our defense can’t be effective, but it’s going to take being aggressive and taking some risks.
We’re going to need to live by the blitz and die by the blitz.
I went back and looked at some defensive plays in the second half against Texas. It was worse than what I remembered. For some reason, Elko ran a base defense with four down linemen and at times abandoned the line of scrimmage with his linebackers. Those were the runs where Arch Manning just took off.
I’m not worried about Carson Beck just taking off, but we can’t apply pressure with four down linemen. I thought Elko learned that lesson last year.
We need to bring disguised pressure from linebackers and the secondary.
We also ran a bunch of zones that we didn’t execute correctly, and Arch picked apart.
Why Elko abandoned what got us to 11 wins, I have no idea.
Bring pressure with man coverage. Stress the Miami offense and don’t let them get comfortable.
He needs to learn from the Texas game and return to a confusing, aggressive defense.
Offensively, Elko needs to realize this is a passing-first, running-second offense. I get that everyone wants to establish the run, and it makes sense. If you can establish the run, then that’s absolutely what you should do.
However, establishing the run in reality can be difficult.
Especially in the playoffs. Especially when your offensive line isn’t dominating, and your most dynamic offensive players are your two receivers.
I love Le’Veon Moss and hope he’s back healthy for the playoffs. He needs to complement the passing game and not be the primary offensive focus.
I still want Moss with double-digit carries, but I don’t want him forced to carry it 20 times because we want to shorten the game.
We also need to work on shortening Reed’s decision-making. If the pass downfield isn’t open, then check down to the tight end or running back. Or take off running yourself. And start sliding more rather than taking a hit.
I want aggressive deep balls to Craver like the first play against Florida. I want more bubble screens for Concepcion and Craver. I want jet sweeps, or at least the threat of them.
I want the Miami defense stretched wide and deep.
I do not want to battle Miami or anyone else in the playoffs in the box. We will lose those games. Our offensive line is good but not great.
And that mindset needs to advance beyond Miami.
Elko needs to plan for the offense to score 30 points or more in each game. Scoring in the 20s ain’t gonna cut it.
I honestly believe we can have the most explosive offense in the playoffs. We need to play like it.
I fear Elko will want to challenge teams in the box. I get it. He’s a defensive guy who wants to establish an identity of owning the trenches. It makes sense if you have the personnel. The Texas game showed us we do not have the personnel to win games like he wants us to.
I hope that the Texas game was a wake-up call for Elko regarding the realities of this team’s talent. If Elko thinks he can run the same offense and defense he did against Texas and beat Miami, he’s a fool.
Creating a team that can win in the trenches is a great long-term goal, I agree with. However, that ain’t the 2025 Fightin’ Texas Aggies.
Our strength is our two dynamic receivers and our ability to confuse a stationary quarterback with a variety of blitzes. I’m not talking pass blitzes either. I’m talking about showing pressure throughout the game that confuses the offensive line and quarterback.
If Elko deviates from that, we will lose a football game, and our season will be done.
Instead of Run the Damn Ball, Elko needs to Roll the Damn Dice.
Collin Klein Conundrum:
I have no clue if Collin Klein should call plays.
Part of me thinks he should move on, but then I don’t know who would call the plays. I don’t believe we have anyone on staff with experience calling plays.
So that’s a conundrum.
I think Klein has tendencies that can be exposed, and if he has another job he’s focused on, it’s not gonna help things.
I know there’s talk of Wiggins taking over the OC job. If that’s the case, cut Klein loose and let Wiggins call plays.
If Wiggins isn’t ready to call plays, you see what Klein can do with two jobs. I don’t know what other options the Aggies have.
I wouldn’t say I’ve totally soured on Klein, but I think we saw a lot of Klein’s tendencies appear down the stretch. I don’t know if that was a directive from Elko trying to win games in the trenches with basic offenses, but it wasn’t working.
We need a creative and unpredictable play caller if we’re going to make a run in the playoffs.
If Klein can’t handle it because he’s focused on his new gig, then let’s roll the dice on Wiggins.
We’re already playing with house money being in the playoffs.
Special Teams:
I’m not going to spend a lot of time on this because I’ve already covered it enough.
If Elko hasn’t allocated more time to special teams over the last week, he’s ignoring a glaring issue.
I’m not talking about just kicking field goals. I’m talking about punt protection and everything else in special teams.
It’s a glaring weakness that needs to be addressed.
It’s obvious, but will he do it?
So Who Wins the Whole Thing?
I wish I had a better feeling for the Aggies making noise. I don’t know if I trust Elko to roll the dice. I hope I’m wrong.
There are two halves of football in our last two games that frighten me—the first half against South Carolina and the second half against Texas. We were closer to being out of the playoffs than anyone wants to remember.
With that, here is my bold and somewhat crazy prediction for the Playoffs:
I think Oregon, Ole Miss, A&M, and Bama win the first round.
Despite my concerns, I do think Elko can outsmart Cristobal at home.
I think Tech, Bama, Georgia, and Ohio State win the second round.
I think Bama and Georgia advance to the Championship Game, with Georgia winning it all.
I know that’s bold picking Bama to go that far, but I think they’re still a good team. I think they spend the next two weeks getting healthy and back to what made them a good team in the middle of the year.
I do think it’s Georgia’s year to win it all.
We’ll have to see how it plays out.
No matter what, I just hope Elko Rolls the Damn Dice.
BTHO Miami.
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